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Conflict Dynamics

Conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and Asia intersect through flows of people, weapons and resources, creating intricate cross-border conflict systems. These knit the formal and informal, licit and illicit in ways that empower armed actors, enmesh conflict with crime and violent extremism, and ensnare local communities in the network of activities that sustain conflict. XCEPT research on conflict dynamics sheds light on these conflict systems, the transnational networks that sustain them, and how affected communities cope with protracted crisis.

Below you can find and download XCEPT research that helps shed light on these complex conflict dynamics.


19th May 2022

Communities living on either side of national borders often forge deep cultural and economic ties but suffer acutely when countries clash. Borders har...


15th March 2022

This briefing paper builds on an empirical study of how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the health, economic status, and mobility of wage laborers and ...


14th March 2022

This report explores how group rivalries are impeding southern unity, and how this might shape developments in a post-conflict Yemen.


17th February 2022

This rapid literature review collates information on cross-border pastoral mobility patterns, the connections between this mobility and cross-border c...


7th February 2022

This paper examines the wave of protests that occurred in Basra Governorate from 2018 to 2020. It explores the protests’ causes, the development of th...


7th February 2022

This briefing considers the changing political situation in Sudan with a particular focus on the future of the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) and the evol...


27th January 2022

The attack of January 17 will force the United Arab Emirates to make one of two choices, neither of them desirable.


23rd December 2021

Rising pressure against Lebanon from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may well be tied to Hezbollah’s role in Yemen.


16th December 2021

This report considers what impact recent events may have on the Juba Peace Agreement and, more generally, peace and security in Sudan’s conflict affec...


15th December 2021

Joint bulletin from The Asia Foundation, Rift Valley Institute, and Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center about recent research and activities.


14th December 2021

The Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme held a virtual panel discussion exploring how technology is advancing...


1st December 2021

Ethiopia’s devastating civil war recently entered into its second year and, to achieve peace, both sides in the conflict need to accept some difficult...


30th November 2021

Trade, Taxes and Tensions explores how cross-border trade affects both cooperation and conflict between the states and state-like entities in the Soma...


12th November 2021

As an entrenched military elite tries to protect extensive economic and political interests despite no public support, parts of the old regime are rea...


20th October 2021

The Iran fuel shipment to Lebanon was significant not because of its size but because of what it signals about regional conflict.


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