Using local approaches to respond to climate change in Asia’s conflict-affected borderlands 

Climate change is increasingly listed as a major risk in future security considerations. This blog explores the particular ways in which communities living in border regions experience the intersection of climate change and insecurity, through several examples observed in Asia. As many of the world’s most climate vulnerable countries are also those experiencing the highest levels of conflict, it is important to understand how this intersection plays out, particularly for people who are marginalised from political decision-making and development responses, as those living in border regions often are.  

Rising temperatures, more frequent extreme weather events, and growing populations in Asia, are putting pressure on existing ways of accessing and managing water, energy, and food, affecting all sectors of the economy and society. Government actors are largely focusing their responses around the impacts on economic development and livelihoods. Volatile weather patterns and environmental degradation over time pose risks to traditional income-generating activities, particularly around agriculture and livestock. Vulnerable populations in conflict areas may miss out on organized assistance and face increased risks of violence around access to these resources. A major coping mechanism for people who have lost land, stable incomes, or a safe living environment is to move to ‘safer’ environments which may be in urban centres or across borders.  

Often considered as the outer limits of a state system, border regions and the communities who live in them may be perceived as peripheral and perhaps less connected to the social, political and economic activity taking place in capitals. These areas often experience first-hand the impacts of the ebbs and flows of bilateral relationships between bordering nations. Where there are tensions along borders over land, shared resources, or waterways, local communities face high risks of violence. In unstable border regions, governments may struggle to safeguard against or respond to climate-related disasters. Policymakers and development actors working in fragile and conflict-affected regions need to consider how climate change increases and multiplies risks to human security, and what appropriate responses look like.  

Where climate interruptions and conflict overlap, responses are challenging 

In Myanmar, climate change manifests within a context of sustained civil conflict which has severely impacted the country’s agricultural sector. Functioning state systems are mostly absent across the border regions where anti-junta resistance has been fiercest since the 2021 coup. At the same time, the withdrawal of much development and humanitarian infrastructure due to the widespread instability may leave food-insecure communities without support. Regular approaches to adaptation or mitigation seem impossible to imagine, as local communities struggle with day to day safety concerns, authorities accelerate the exploitation of natural resources to supplement their decreasing income, and civil society activism risks reprisals. 

Pakistan is also highly vulnerable, experiencing increasingly extreme weather events like floods and heatwaves. Their economic impacts are significant, with agricultural output reduced, exacerbating food insecurity and increasing the risk of conflict over scarce resources. Responses from authorities have been limited and are likely to face implementation challenges in the highly securitised border regions, such as the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Effective local action may be diminished by a volatile political landscape.  

Migration is a major coping mechanism for climate-affected populations. The World Bank forecasts that climate change will cause 143 million individuals to move in and from Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America by 2050. If not properly managed, these patterns could cause significant demographic shifts and risk social unrest. Urban areas, often the primary destination for people immediately impacted by climate events, may not be prepared to receive the new arrivals, leaving them to live in precarious or illegal settlements, often unsafe and outside formal welfare systems.  

Local solutions for local impacts 

Positive developments in supporting climate responses in fragile or conflict-affected regions include greater multilateral engagement on the topic and efforts to increase accessibility of climate financing. The 2024 Conference of Parties (COP) meeting in Azerbaijan culminated with a call to recognise climate change as “a catalyst for conflict and instability,” that has “disproportionate impacts on the most vulnerable”. Action also needs to move from the general to the local so that solutions are contextually relevant and practical. This point is particularly salient for communities in border regions, where policymakers must recognise unique geographical and political contexts, and not apply uniform climate change mitigation or adaptation strategies from a state-centric perspective.  

To understand regional nuances better, and design locally effective solutions, more research that prioritises local experiences and perspectives in climate change-affected fragile border areas is needed. The Centre for Peace and Justice at BRAC University, with support from XCEPT, is working in some of Bangladesh’s most climate-vulnerable communities adjacent to the southwestern border with India. New research explores how communities already experiencing political and economic dispossession and structural violence due to their peripheral location navigate successive climate crises. The report includes suggestions for local action to support communities in mitigating and recovering from disasters which are easily implemented and scalable, 

As the effects of climate change become more pronounced, and pressure on resources and livelihoods increases, contextually relevant and cost-effective solutions are needed more than ever. Fragile border areas face intersecting security risks that can be multiplied by climate change. Responses should be multi-faceted, encouraging greater community resilience, equitable access to resources, and better cooperation between bordering nations.