This XCEPT article, published in Foreign Affairs, explores the uncertain future of Syria following the December 2024 overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad. Written by Nafees Hamid, Nils Mallock, Broderick McDonald, and Rahaf Aldoughli, the piece examines the role of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), its leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, and the fragile coalition that brought down Al Assad.
Drawing on interviews and surveys with Syrian rebel fighters, the authors argue traditional economic incentives could backfire, undermining pragmatic leaders by making them appear compromised. Instead, they advocate for diplomatic gestures and unconditional humanitarian aid as more effective approaches for stabilising Syria and breaking its cycle of violence and repression.
This article also highlights the risks of renewed civil conflict due to ideological divisions among rebel factions and political mistrust.