The conflict in Syria has transformed the country’s border regions. Damascus has lost control over most of these regions, while it retains only hypothetical control over others in which allies of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime dominate. Control over borders has always been a central dimension of the power of the Baathist state and is a barometer of any state’s sovereignty in general. Yet today, the control of Syria’s central government over the country’s border areas is being contested by local, regional, and international actors, leading to a proliferation of political authorities, or centers, with influence in these areas.
The border regions differ from one another, but all have one characteristic in common: they have become largely autonomous zones, with their own economy, security, and even ideology, having been transformed into de facto cantons outside the control of Damascus.
A major consequence of this reality is that it has put in motion a long-term trend in which Damascus will not soon restore Syrian state sovereignty over most Syrian border areas. On the contrary, in the coming years the dynamics in the borderlands will continue to be defined principally by the local, regional, and international actors and the interactions among them.
A broad consensus is needed to bring the dynamics in Syria back to a national framework, within which the contending parties can reach a settlement stabilizing the situation in the country.