Over the past fourteen years, Tunisia has undergone significant political shifts, including the democratization process that followed the 2010–2011 Arab Spring, the democratic breakdown following President Kais Saied’s power grab in 2021, and, most recently, the unfolding of a chaotic authoritarian restoration process. However, one critical dynamic has received less attention: a climate crisis that has been compounding the country’s turbulent political trajectory. Since 2017, Tunisia has experienced intensified climate change effects, including severe drought, a sharp decline in the water levels of transboundary rivers flowing from Algeria into Tunisia, and a dramatic reduction in water reserves in the country’s dams. These factors have led to widespread water and food insecurities, causing significant degradation in farming and livestock breeding, particularly in the regions bordering Algeria.
However, the climate crisis is not solely responsible for the deepening crisis. Saied’s governance failures have exacerbated Tunisia’s long-standing vulnerabilities. These failures have contributed to food shortages, inflation, and increased smuggling of cattle and food products into and from Algeria. The regime’s dysfunctional regulatory measures in particular have worsened food dependency, while financial constraints have deprived Tunisia of the means to adapt to climate change, support its deteriorating agricultural sector, and preserve its sovereignty. In effect, Tunisia’s worsening food insecurity has amplified the power imbalance between Tunisia and Algeria, increasing the latter’s geopolitical leverage over its weaker and increasingly dependent neighbor. This dependence has aggravated Tunisia’s marginalization both regionally and globally and forced it to align closely with Algiers.
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