Iran and its allied groups in the Middle East form a loose coalition often collectively referred to as the ‘axis of resistance’. The axis suffered significant setbacks in 2024, amid conflict with Israel and other political turbulence, leading some observers to conclude that its members – which now, along with Iran, comprise Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and parts of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq – have been seriously weakened or are even on the verge of defeat. Notwithstanding the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime – also until recently a part of the axis – in Syria, however, our research shows that the axis has historically proven much more resilient than this view allows.