The October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel and the latter’s subsequent months-long and ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip have drastically redefined the security considerations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone strikes on Israel, launched in retaliation for an Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, sent a clear message to regional countries of Tehran’s military reach. Despite a relatively successful rapprochement between Iran and the Gulf states following the Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iranian reconciliation agreement in March 2023, the Iranian attack on Israel alarmed the Gulf states. Although Tehran reportedly disclosed the scope of the operation to its Gulf neighbors before its launch, its scale and nature forced these countries to reassess their security priorities.
At issue is the realization that, in an evolving security landscape, securing one’s territorial borders no longer suffices when it comes to guarding against potential threats. National security requires additional measures. Chief among them are protecting airspace and maritime zones, entering into transnational defence arrangements, and investing in drone and surveillance technology.
Nonetheless, such efforts can go only so far—particularly once hostilities have erupted. Indeed, another round of Iran-Israel fighting would pose significant challenges to the GCC, particularly if Washington is drawn into the conflict. To navigate these evolving security challenges to their borders and sovereignty, the GCC states face a difficult task. They must strike a balance between their recent diplomatic rapprochement with Iran, their ongoing efforts to develop a loose regional security framework that includes Israel and the United States, and their new politico-economic gravitation toward China and, to a lesser extent, Russia.
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